In Ukraine, the managed floating exchange rate returned after the war, marking a crucial economic shift. This move follows the 2014 artificial dollar peg, which depleted reserves and triggered a major shock.
Background: From Fixed to Floating Rates
Ukraine held the dollar at an artificial 8 hryvnias until 2014. It was a policy that, as Incrypted says, drained the country’s gold and foreign currency reserves, and in the end brought about such a profound economic collapse that there was no choice but to rethink the way the currency was managed.
What followed in the wake of 2014 was a move to a managed floating rate. A painful step, certainly, but one that had to be made. By ceding some control to the market and allowing the currency to find its own value, Ukraine was able to make the kind of natural adjustments required to put the economy back on a steady footing after the shock.
War-Time Policy: Temporary Fixing and Market Reactions
The National Bank of Ukraine was swift to once again peg the dollar exchange rate in the wake of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion. According to the Incrypted host, such an emergency step was necessary to impose some order on the currency market and head off any panic amid the wartime turmoil.
With conditions settling down, though, Ukraine has been making a slow transition back to a managed floating system. It is a method that lets the market find its own level in accordance with actual supply and demand, yet still leaves the central bank free to step in and intervene as circumstances warrant.
Inflation, Interest Rates, and Economic Trade-Offs
There is a direct link between a steep decline in the exchange rate and import inflation. A weaker hryvnia puts a premium on imported products, and prices in general will follow suit. The National Bank’s response is to put upward pressure on the key interest rate; by making loans more expensive, it can rein in inflation and prop up the currency even if it comes at the expense of some economic growth.
It is a fine line to walk when it comes to juggling inflation with economic activity, as was noted on Incrypted. On one hand, a high rate is good for the managed float, putting a damper on speculation and steadying prices. On the other, it is a burden on the borrowing costs of both consumers and the business community.
Source — Incrypted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_q1lLuP7Mdw