Bitcoin declined modestly on Friday as its recent rally lost momentum, with enthusiasm about lower US borrowing costs beginning to fade. New data suggests the cryptocurrency may be approaching a cycle top.
According to crypto trader CasiTrades, Bitcoin has reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around $117,900, which she described as a textbook target for a potential Wave 2 pivot. This level represents one of the most common bearish turning points in a market cycle. Several technical patterns are converging at this point, including the completion of a larger Wave 2 ABC pattern and the alignment of five clear subwaves within the C wave, all targeting the same retracement zone. The Relative Strength Index is showing multiple bearish divergences up to the four-hour chart, indicating weakening momentum.
A decisive move below $113,000 would confirm a downward trend, with potential targets near $96,000 or $90,000. The analyst believes the recent $118,000 high may represent the anticipated market top, unless Bitcoin breaks RSI resistance and pushes to new all-time highs. CasiTrades noted that the market is showing all the classic signs of topping.
On September 19, Michigan’s Bitcoin Reserve Bill advanced through its second reading in the state House before moving to the Government Operations Committee. The proposal would allow up to 10% of state funds to be allocated into cryptocurrency, potentially setting the stage for broader institutional adoption, though its near-term impact remains limited.
Political resistance poses a bigger risk, with Bitunix Analysts warning that any pushback could trigger sharp, liquidation-driven pullbacks in Bitcoin.
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