Bitcoin Eyes Third Consecutive Green September Before Expected October Rally

Bitcoin is positioned for a third consecutive positive September, a pattern that historically precedes significant October rallies. With current monthly gains around 8%, analysts are monitoring whether the “Uptober” trend will continue.

Historical data shows that every positive September has been followed by double-digit October gains. In 2024, Bitcoin’s 7.29% September increase led to a 10.76% October rise. The previous year saw a 3.91% September gain followed by a 28.52% October surge. This consistent pattern has created market psychology where traders position portfolios in anticipation of rallies, potentially creating self-fulfilling prophecies as increased buying pressure generates the expected surge.

The April 2024 Bitcoin halving, which reduced mining rewards by 50%, created a supply shock that historically drives growth in the following year. Previous halvings support this trend: the 2016 halving preceded Bitcoin’s 2017 surge from hundreds of dollars to nearly $20,000, while the 2020 halving led to the 2021 rally from around $10,000 to nearly $69,000.

Recent macroeconomic developments have boosted confidence in risk assets. The Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point rate cut in September 2025 drove Bitcoin’s price to $118,000. The Trump administration’s pro-cryptocurrency stance, including the March 2025 creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, has added institutional support.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue driving demand, with the first half of September showing the largest weekly inflows since July. US-listed ETFs now hold over 1.

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