Benjamin Cowen has put a spotlight on the fact that Bitcoin is in a bit of a bind. With the asset hemmed in by important support and resistance, he sees room for more of a pullback before the year is out. It is an old story in some ways; his read on the market is that these are the kind of cyclical patterns you can expect to see when it comes to where the top coin is headed next.
Key Support and Resistance Define Bitcoin Price Action
Benjamin Cowen sees Bitcoin in a bit of a ‘ping-pong’ phase, with the asset moving back and forth between the kind of support you see in a bull market and the resistance of a bear one. For now, those levels are hard to break through, which is what’s making for some unease on the part of traders. In his view, we can expect to be range-bound for the time being unless there is a clean break one way or the other.
It is a source of some exasperation for investors in search of a defined direction. But then again, this sort of tussle at the technical level has been the calm before the storm in the past, so there is an air of expectancy in the crypto space as to where it will all go from here.
Midterm Year Patterns: Will History Repeat?
There is a tendency in midterm years for Bitcoin to hit bottom in the latter part of June or the first week of July, only to put on a show of recovery. But as Cowen points out, don’t count on it to last. Take 2018: once the July rally was over, the price tumbled hard in the months that followed. The same thing happened back in 2014 and 2022.
It’s a kind of seasonal softness. If the asset can’t make a move out of where it is now, another late-summer lull is likely in the offing. Given how well these old patterns have a way of resurfacing in a midterm year, Cowen’s view is to be on guard.
On-Chain Indicators and Broader Market Signals
It is not just the price that has Cowen’s attention; on-chain data is also raising some red flags. A number of his firm’s indicators, from network traffic to realized gains, have him thinking a retest of present levels — or worse — for Bitcoin is in the cards for the rest of the year. In his view, such a move would be a good thing, a way to put the market in order and set the stage for what is to come.
Then there is the S&P 500 to consider. The index has yet to see a proper correction, something that has been a driver for more pronounced action in the crypto space in the past. Cowen foresees a peak in the equity index in the late summer or early fall, with the kind of pullback that might well have a spillover effect on Bitcoin.
Still, he is not without optimism. Provided the asset does not suffer a serious breakdown before the year is out, 2025 could be the beginning of a fresh bull run.
Source — Benjamin Cowen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JY_wY8XXjYU
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